US beans continue to rise even higher than soybean oil shocks

Dalian soybean oil futures opened higher in the morning on October 14th. The main 1205 contract closed at 9354 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. Overnight US beans continued to rise, boosting soybean oil and opening up shocks. The United States Department of Agriculture reported that Lido provided fundamental support for the market. Although it is currently unclear whether the market will form a reversal, the short-term rebound trend can still be established. The domestic CPI rose by 6.1% in September, indicating that inflation is still at a high level. Technically, the price stays above the 10-day moving average and is still under test near 9400. It is expected that soybean oil will continue to rebound in the near future.

The USDA lowered its forecast for 2011 soybean production in the United States from 3.085 billion bushels in September to 3.06 billion bushels, a decrease of 0.8%, and the soybean harvest is expected to be 31.5 bushels per acre, which is a decrease of 0.3 bushels from its September forecast. At the same time, the USDA also expects US 2011/2012 soybean ending stocks at 160 million bushels, down 5 million from its September forecast, and analysts expect a median of 181 million bushels. The USDA said in the report that it is expected that soybean exports in 2011/2012 will be reduced by 40 million bushels to 1.375 billion bushels.

Domestically, in September, the nation’s overall consumer price index rose by 6.1% year-on-year, of which food prices rose by 13.4% and non-food prices rose by 2.9%; consumer goods prices rose by 7.3%, and service item prices rose by 3.0%. At present, domestic inflation is still at a high level. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no substantive shift in the tone of macroeconomic policies.

The General Administration of Customs announced on October 13 that the import volume of soybeans in September was 4.13 million tons, which was lower than the 4.51 million tons in August and 5.35 million tons in July. The import volume showed a trend of decreasing month by month; cumulative imports from January to September 37.71 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%. The customs also stated that the import of edible vegetable oil was 570,000 tons in September, which was lower than the 690,000 tons in August and 700,000 tons in July. It also showed a trend of decreasing month by month. In January-September, 4.64 million tons of edible vegetable oil was imported, a year-on-year increase. Reduced by 6.0%.

In terms of spot, the quotation for oils and oils remained stable, and the fourth grade soybean oil in the coastal area was about RMB 9180-9550/ton. According to another source, the China Reserve Grain Management Company purchased 10-12 million tons of Brazilian soybean oil and 700,000 tons of US soybean for national reserves. This undoubtedly boosted the US market, but it will suppress the domestic market.