Agricultural products soared and plunge

The cycle of soaring and plunging agricultural products has not been broken. "Garlic, oysters," "Ginger, your army," and other recent uninhibited scenery, Shandong, the main producer of agricultural products prices fell 25% over the same period last year, including ginger garlic is down more than 70%.

Analysts pointed out that the skyrocketing of last year laid a ground for this year's crash. However, the most injured after the skyrocketing tsunami was the peasants. To this end, relevant experts suggest that while the government is establishing a vegetable basket project and stabilizing commodity prices, it should strengthen the monitoring of agricultural product cultivation information and market information, establish a mechanism for the protection of farmers' interests, and try to avoid “caucasians hurt farmers”.

The status quo ginger garlic fell more than 70% species of an acre of garlic this year lost nearly 2,000

"I haven't bought such a cheap garlic for a long time. Now I only have 2.5 yuan per catty, which is too much worse than the original 10 yuan!" said Chen Bo, who is buying vegetables at the Dongxing Nancai Market in Wuyang New Town yesterday afternoon. Obviously, the old “garlic oysters” are no longer beautiful.

“Now the wholesale price of garlic is less than 2 yuan, which is not comparable with the price of garlic in 2010.” Liu Xing, owner of Dongxing South Vegetable Market, said that since the beginning of this year, the price of garlic in Guangzhou has entered the downside, and the current wholesale price can be Said to have reached the lowest price in the past two years.

According to industry sources, the price correction of Guangzhou garlic was mainly due to the sharp drop in the price of garlic in Shandong, the main producing area. According to the "First Financial (Weibo) Daily" report recently, Shandong Jinxiang County garlic purchase price is only about 8 cents per catty, less than one-fifth of last year at this time. Jinxiang County is the home of garlic in the world.

According to the monitoring of 35 kinds of vegetable prices by Shandong Agricultural Information Website-Shandong Agricultural Information Network, from October 24th to October 30th, the wholesale price of vegetables in Shandong fell continuously and the average price was 2.39 yuan/kg, which was 5.24% lower than last week. 4 weeks fell. Of these, 24 prices fell, 3 prices remained flat, and 8 prices rose. The prices of lettuce, fennel and lettuce dropped sharply and fell by 32.75%, 25.68% and 25.56%, respectively.

Compared with the same period of last year, the wholesale price of vegetables fell by 25.59%, of which 27 prices fell and 8 prices rose. Ginger, garlic, and cauliflower prices dropped more than 50%, falling by 73.13%, 72.53%, 52.10%, respectively; Broccoli, cabbage, Chinese cabbage, zucchini, white radish, potatoes, celery, fennel, spinach, tomatoes, chayote, onion The decrease was over 30%, which fell by 49.15%, 43.79%, 42.54%, 41.01%, 38.77%, 37.65%, 37.40%, 37.39%, 34.76%, 33.80%, 31.73% and 31.35%, respectively.

In fact, Shandong is not an example. Recently, domestic agricultural products have fallen one after another.

According to a monitoring report issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the prices of edible agricultural products and means of production continued to fall last week (October 24-30). It has been falling for three consecutive weeks since October. The average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables decreased by 2.2% compared with the previous week (the same below), among which lettuce, celery, and Chinese cabbage declined by 15.4%, 11.7%, and 11.4%, respectively, while rape, white radish, and eggplant decreased by 6.2% and 3.8% respectively. 3.7%.

It is still the farmers that have soared and plunged agricultural products. Jinxiang County, Shandong, told reporters garlic farmers, an acre generally produces 2,000 pounds of garlic, garlic farmers sell garlic income in 1,600 yuan, while the cost of garlic is about 3,600 yuan. This means that each acre of garlic will have to pay close to 2,000 this year.

Analysing the odd circle is hard to increase

“The middlemen made the most profit during the boom, and the farmers had only a small part of the benefits; when it fell, the losses were all passed on to the farmers.” Industry insiders lamented.

One round of agricultural products soaring and plunging is the repeated interpretation of the Cobweb model theory. In the game between small farmers and the big market, prices have become a single signal of yield adjustment, and local governments have played a role in helping to stabilize the food basket.

Yang Xiang, manager of garlic spot trading market in Jinxiang County, said that garlic prices were very good last year and attracted many farmers to join the garlic planting team. This reporter learned that Jinxiang's garlic storage is about 1.3 million tons this year, and it was roughly 900,000 tons last year. The increase in stocks is very obvious.

Ma Wenfeng, an analyst at Eastern Iger Agricultural Consulting Co., said that as early as two or three months ago, he had already made an early warning of the fall in the prices of agricultural products. On the one hand, the price of agricultural products soared last year and the sown area increased significantly. . On the other hand, the tightening of monetary policy will also directly affect the price of agricultural products.

Ma Wenfeng believes that last year, the increase in agricultural product prices was not caused by supply shortage, but was driven by the ultra-currency of money. Regarding the sharp fall in the prices of agricultural products this round, the sudden brake on the supply of money is more important than the expansion of the acreage of agricultural products.

Analysts from the Agricultural Productivity Promotion Center of China Merchants said that due to seasonal factors and a series of government measures to promote the production and circulation of agricultural products, the overall market supply of foodstuffs for agricultural products has shown a recovery growth. The price increase momentum has been curbed and the price of edible agricultural products has dropped for three consecutive weeks. , The major agricultural and sideline products such as pork, vegetables, and eggs will all be reduced in price.

Countermeasures to improve information mechanism and collection mechanism to reduce blindness of farmers' cultivation

"Now the government has a very contradictory issue on the price of agricultural products. If the price of agricultural products rises, it will affect people's lives and push up the CPI, leading to 'cause-injury and injury to the people'; and a drop in the price of agricultural products will lead to 'caucaisi injury to farmers'." Professor Chen Riyuan of South China Agricultural University stated that under this contradiction, in fact, there are always two benefits that are impaired—one is a farmer, one is a consumer, and middlemen make a lot of money.

“The thinking of many of our local governments still remains in the model of the planned economy in the past. At that time, if there was a price increase, we would be busy stabilizing production, expanding production, and increasing the supply of agricultural resources. Considering circulation, we did not systematically consider the risk of market fluctuations, said Wang Xianqing, director of the Institute of Circulation Economics at the Guangdong University of Commerce.

Ling Gui, owner of Bo Luoyang Village, frankly stated that he hopes that the government can get rid of the vicious circle of "high prices and low prices for agricultural products" and establish a mechanism conducive to the long-term healthy development of agricultural products.

“For example, can the government strengthen the monitoring of planting information and market information and reduce the blindness of farmers' planting?” Ling Gui said that if the price drop of vegetables was caused by a nationwide centralized listing, then if the government can Before the farmers have planted, there is a climate forecast and coordination among the regions will be used to guide the farmers to dislocate the plant. Perhaps the loss of the farmers will be greatly reduced.

"Now, the government's most important thing is to do a good job on the last kilometer of vegetable prices." Chen Riyuan believes that, for example, our province should vigorously promote "agricultural super docking," and reduce the number of intermediary links as much as possible so that not only can farmers be reduced Losses can also promote the steady development of the market. In addition, government functional departments can also use government credibility to establish semi-market and semi-public membership-based intermediary organizations to increase the degree of organization and game ability of farmers, and to break the imbalance between small-scale farmers and the big market. It becomes "hard" in the market and ultimately maximizes the interests of vegetable farmers.